Decoding the 10-Year Market Cycle: Peak, Correction, and What’s Next for Home Values

Whether you are planning to sell, hunting for a new home, or simply tracking your biggest net-worth asset, understanding local real estate trends is essential. Real estate markets move in distinct cycles, and looking at single-family residential data from the past decade reveals a dramatic story of rapid growth, a historic peak, a necessary correction, and a steady stabilization.

The raw market metrics outline exactly where home prices have been, what they have done over the last 5 years, and where they stand today.

The Big Picture: A Decade-Long Overview
To appreciate how much values have shifted, look back to April 2016. Ten years ago, the median sold price for a single-family home was a modest $237,500.

Between 2016 and 2020, home prices climbed at a healthy, predictable pace, landing at $319,990 by April 2020. This represented a steady 34.7% gain over four years—driven by normal economic growth, job creation, and standard inventory patterns. Then, the post-2020 landscape completely shifted real estate market dynamics.

The Great Surge and the True Historic Peak
As mortgage rates plummeted and remote work sparked a massive wave of housing relocations, competition exploded. Buyers began bidding well over asking price, sparking a two-year pricing spike.

• The Milestone: By April 2022, the median sold price broke records to hit $500,000.
• The Absolute Peak: Prices pushed even higher the following month. In May 2022, the market reached its absolute historic peak at $510,000.

At that exact moment, a single-family home cost 114.7% more than it did just six years prior. However, an acceleration of that speed is rarely sustainable long-term.

1. The Post-Peak Pullback
As inflation spiked and interest rates rose to cool the economy, buyer purchasing power contracted sharply. The market responded with a visible correction. By April 2023, the median sold price fell to $455,190—a 10.7% drop from the absolute peak hit a year earlier.

2. The Return of Premium Inventory
As buyers and sellers adjusted to a higher-rate landscape, pent-up demand pushed values back up temporarily to $491,128 in April 2024.

3. Steady Stabilization
Today, the market is no longer wild or unpredictable. It has entered a phase of healthy stabilization. In April 2025, the median sat at $475,000, and the latest data for April 2026 shows home values tracking at $485,000. A healthy increase.

Hidden Value in the Data: List Price vs. Sale Price
When studying real estate reports, the most useful insights often hide in the gap between what sellers wantand what buyers actually pay.

During the hyper-competitive peak of early 2022, active list prices and sold prices were neck-and-neck, hovering right at the $500,000 mark. Fast forward to today, and a prominent disconnect has emerged.
In April 2026, the Active Median List Price stands at $522,700, while the Sold Median Sale Price is tracking lower at $485,000. This gap tells us two critical facts:

• Sellers remain ambitious: High equity values from the past few years keep seller expectations high.
• Buyers have leverage: Higher borrowing costs mean buyers are successfully negotiating prices down below original asking amounts. Bidding wars have largely been replaced by rational, calculated negotiations.

What This Data Means for You

• For Buyers: The days of desperate overpaying are over. With median sold prices resting safely below active list prices, you have the room to negotiate, request concessions, and make patient decisions.
• For Sellers: Your equity is secure. While you may not capture the anomalous pricing premium of May 2022, single-family homes have retained a massive portion of their pandemic-era gains. Accurate pricing is now the number-one key to a fast, clean sale.

What will the next 10 years bring?  I believe home prices have "caught up" and we will see the steady 3% (average neighborhood) to 5% (high demand neighborhood) price increase per year that we have seen in the past. So don't hesitate if you plan on moving.

If you or anyone you know is looking to buy, sell or invest in real estate, rely on my 20+ years of experience and market knowledge. Call or text me today!

DONALD KEYS
Selling Homes Since 2006
HomeSmart
Elite Group
(602) 750-1744

Home prices continue to increase at a steady pace as interest rates have dropped in recent months!
As we head into the busiest home buying season of the year, the Arizona housing market is showing signs of stabilization and improved affordability. After a slower market through much of 2024 and early 2025, both buyers and sellers are beginning to find more balance.

Here’s what’s happening right now in the market.

Inventory Is Finally Back to Normal
For the first time in over a decade, housing inventory in the Greater Phoenix area has returned to what economists consider a normal level. After nearly 14 years of chronic housing shortages, the number of homes available for sale has increased significantly.

Across Arizona there are currently 45,671 active listings, an 8.5% increase compared to last year. With about 5.84 months of inventory, the market is considered balanced, with six months typically representing equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

Buyer Demand Is Improving
Buyer demand is still slightly below historic norms but is steadily improving. Contracts currently in escrow are 7% higher than this time last year, and activity is expected to peak over the next few months as the spring buying season ramps up.

Mortgage rates have also stabilized, which has helped bring buyers back into the market. Conventional mortgage rates have remained in the low 6% range, while FHA and adjustable-rate mortgages are sitting in the mid-5% range.
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Home Prices Are Holding Steady and Icreasing Slightly.
The median home price in Arizona is now $444,500, up slightly from $440,000 last year. That’s roughly a 1% year-over-year increase, showing that while prices are no longer rising rapidly, they remain relatively stable.

For homes priced below $800,000, prices are actually about 4% lower than a year ago, helping improve affordability for many buyers.

When combined with lower mortgage rates compared to last year, the average monthly payment on a median-priced home is about 14% lower than it was a year ago. For example, a $2,500 monthly payment in early 2025 would now be closer to $2,150 for the same home.

Some Areas Favor Buyers More Than Others
The overall market is slightly leaning toward buyers, but conditions vary depending on the city.

Central Phoenix areas remain closer to a seller’s market, while many growing cities on the outskirts — including San Tan Valley, Buckeye, Goodyear, Gold Canyon, and Surprise — currently have more inventory available, giving buyers additional negotiating power.

Interestingly, Apache Junction is currently seeing stronger demand, ranking as one of the stronger seller markets in the region.

What This Means for Buyers
Buyers currently have more choices and slightly better affordability compared to last year. With inventory levels improving and mortgage rates stabilizing, many buyers are finding opportunities that didn’t exist 12–18 months ago.

Waiting for dramatically lower prices or rates may not make a large difference. In fact, analysts estimate that waiting another 3–6 months might only reduce a typical payment by around $30 per month.

What This Means for Sellers
For sellers, the key to success in today’s market is pricing and presentation.

As more listings hit the market during the spring season, buyers are becoming selective. Homes that are priced competitively and show well are still attracting strong interest, while homes priced too aggressively may sit longer on the market.

Today’s buyers are looking for the best value for the money, not necessarily the home with the most upgrades.

The Bottom Line
The Arizona housing market in 2026 is transitioning toward balance. Buyers have more options and improved affordability, while sellers who price their homes correctly are still seeing successful sales.

As we move deeper into the spring buying season, activity is expected to continue increasing over the next several months.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling this year, understanding the local market conditions can make a big difference in your results. If you or anyone you know has a real estate need, buying or selling call or text me with their name and number.

DONALD KEYS
Selling Homes Since 2006
HomeSmart
​(602) 750-1744 

Courtesy of Brian Buffini and Arizona Regional MLS:

December 2025 Phoenix, AZ Real Estate Market Update:

As the real estate market continues to change , with mortgage rates starting to slowly drop, there is still a tremendous pent-up demand from Buyers who wish to buy either their first home or a brand new build home. Although not at the record high numbers we saw a few years ago, there are still a projected 4 million homes that will be sold in 2026! That is a big increase.

Here are three hard facts that click bait headlines ignore:

1. Supply and Demand is Stabilizing
If you scroll online, you may think that there are no homes for sale, but that is not true! For the Arizona Regional MLS (Phoenix, AZ / Maricopa County) In November 2025, there were 24,568 active listings, the highest November count seen in the past decade. Active listings were also 15% higher than last November and remained well above the long-term November average of 17,303. For the past few months, we’ve been at about 4.6 months, pretty close to the numbers we saw in 2019.  That’s a balanced market, which is traditionally defined as 4-6 months of inventory. In 2026, that number is projected to stay about the same or rise slightly.  

2. Mortgage Rates Are Drifting Down
The days of mortgage rates in the 2-3% range are over. Those “artificial” rates were in response to the pandemic and ensuing financial crisis and we will NEVER see them again.
Fortunately, it looks like the rates we saw over the last two years, which bumped up against 8%, are also behind us. Right now they are around 6.2% and are projected to stay in that range through 2026.

3. Homeownership Continues to Be Strong
Again, if you’re doomscrolling, you’ll find some suggesting that renting a home is a better option than buying. But the rate of homeownership continues to be very strong, about in the 65% range, with its highest in 2020 at nearly 68% in 2020 and then dropping slightly in the ensuing years.

​Here’s another powerful stat. Homeowners, on average, have 43x times the wealth of non-homeowners.


And there continues to be a pent-up demand from those looking to buy either their first home or a new home. The challenge for real estate professionals and adjacent professions is helping would-be buyers find not only available homes for sale, but also for creative financing options.

If you would like to to learn more about ALL YOUR HOME BUYING OPTIONS including BELOW MARKET INTEREST RATES, Down Payment Assitance and more, call or text me today. I love helping people! DONALD KEYS Selling Homes Since 2006 HomeSmart (602) 750-1744 .

Experts have various opinions on how long it takes to create a habit or achieve a goal. It ranges from 21 day to 90 days with an average of 66 days. One thing to consider is it may not take "days" but " attempts" to create a good habit or hit your goal. For example if you can take several attempts at a goal each day, you will achieve it faster as long as those attempts are genuine and not rushed.

One of the best ways to build momentum is by focusing on 90-day goals. Think of it as giving yourself a quarter of the year to really commit and track progress.

Choose one meaningful goal in different areas of your life:

• Personal: Read 3 books in 90 days or learn a new skill.
• Health: Exercise 4 days per week or improve your nutrition habits.
• Family: Schedule weekly family nights or more intentional time with loved ones.
• Career/Job: Complete a certification, hit a sales target, or improve a skill that makes your work easier or more rewarding.

Use my 90-day calendar tracker to stay accountable. Each day, write down one thing you did toward your goal—no matter how small. Over time, these daily actions add up, and you’ll be able to see your consistency and progress at a glance. 

I have created a FREE 90 DAY GOAL CALENDAR that you can download.

Write down your GOAL, START DATE, END DATE and what progress you made toward your goal EVERY DAY. It is OK to take a DAY OFF if you are not working toward your goal that day, just write the word OFF.

When Sunday rolls around, many of us feel that anxious feeling about the busy week ahead. But with a few simple calendar habits, you can take control of your schedule, reduce stress, and set yourself up for success both personally and professionally.

Start with Simple Calendar Habits

Good routines create calm. Here are a few practical hacks (inspired by my Sunday prep guide and calendar strategies) that can help you start each week strong:

• Meal Prep & Pack Ahead: Prepare meals or snacks on Sunday so you always have grab-and-go options or at least know what you are eating each day.
• Lay Out Your Clothes: Simplify mornings by setting aside your outfits for the week.
• Family Time: Set aside 30 minutes to 1 hour each day or one night a week just for building your relationship with your spouse or family.
• Assign Daily Themes: For example, Monday = laundry, Tuesday = errands. This creates a rhythm that reduces decision fatigue.
• Plan in Reverse: Start with your “must-finish” time each day and schedule backward.
• Reset Quickly: Instead of cleaning your whole house, tidy one space for an instant mental reset.
• Pair Tasks: Match something you don’t enjoy (like folding laundry) with something you do enjoy (like listening to music or a podcast).
  ​
  These small steps add up to big results when practiced consistently.

Just like with personal or professional goals, real estate success comes from having a clear plan and sticking to it. Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or investing, the right strategy makes all the difference.

If you have a real estate goal, let’s connect. Together we’ll create a custom “Game Plan” based on your needs, timeline, and dreams.

Donald Keys
Selling Homes Since 2006
HomeSmart
​📞 (602) 750-1744

If you’ve owned your home for a while, there’s a strong chance you’re sitting on more equity than you realize—and that equity could open the door to a simpler, more comfortable lifestyle.

According to Freddie Mac, homeowner wealth has grown significantly over the past decade. From the fourth quarter of 2009 to the second quarter of 2024, the average homeowner gained $486,000 in wealth through home price appreciation. That’s nearly half a million dollars in equity—without having to lift a finger.

Why Now Could Be the Perfect Time to Downsize

If you’re considering a change in lifestyle or want to free up some financial breathing room, downsizing to a smaller home or a 55+ retirement community might be the smart move. Here’s why:
💰 A Cash Purchase Is Within Reach

With the equity you’ve built, selling your current home could allow you to purchase your next home in cash. That means no mortgage payments, no interest, and no stress over fluctuating mortgage rates.
⚡ Make a More Attractive Offer

Cash buyers hold serious leverage in today’s competitive real estate market. With no financing contingencies, your offer is often more appealing to sellers—helping you close faster and with fewer hurdles.

🧳 More Freedom, More Lifestyle
Without a mortgage payment, you can put your money where it matters most--traveling, investing, or simply enjoying living without financial strain. Downsizing gives you the flexibility to do more of what you love.
🏡 Low-Maintenance Living

Smaller homes or age-restricted communities often mean less maintenance, lower utility costs, and amenities designed for comfort and convenience. Whether it’s a lock-and-leave patio home or a vibrant 55+ neighborhood with social activities, your next chapter could be your best yet.
💡 Curious How Much Equity You Have?You might be surprised by what your home is worth—and how far your equity can take you. Let’s talk about your options. Whether you’re just exploring or ready to make a move, I’m here to help.
Contact me today:
​
Donald Keys
Selling Homes Since 2006
HomeSmart
📞 (602) 750-1744

What’s the Best Air Filter for Your HVAC System in Phoenix, Arizona?

When it comes to keeping your Phoenix home comfortable, your HVAC system does a lot of the heavy lifting—especially during those long, scorching summers. But one often-overlooked component plays a crucial role in both air quality and system performance: your air filter.

So which filter is best for your home in the Valley of the Sun?

The short answer: A one-inch pleated filter that costs around $4 is the sweet spot for most Phoenix homeowners.

Let’s break down why—and how it stacks up against other options.

What’s the Purpose of an HVAC Air Filter?
Air filters are designed to:

• Trap dust, pet dander, pollen, and other airborne particles.
• Protect your HVAC system from debris that could clog components or reduce efficiency.
• Improve indoor air quality (especially important in Phoenix, where dust and allergens are common).

The Options: Pleated Filters vs. Fiberglass Filters vs. High-Efficiency Filters

🛑 The $1 Fiberglass Filter: Cheap, but Costly

Fiberglass filters are those thin, blue or green disposable filters you’ll often see at hardware stores. At about $1 apiece, they’re attractive for the price—but they barely filter anything. They’re essentially designed to protect the HVAC system from large particles like lint or clumps of dust, not to improve your air quality.

Pros:

• Very cheap
• Minimal airflow restriction

Cons:

• Trap very few particles (MERV rating 2–4)
• Poor indoor air quality
• Don’t capture allergens or fine dust
• Need replacement every 30 days

In Phoenix, where dust storms (haboobs) and high pollen counts are regular events, this level of filtration just isn’t enough. You’ll breathe in more particulates, and your HVAC system may still suffer from internal dust buildup over time.

✅  The $4 One-Inch Pleated Filter: Best for Most Homes

These filters are made from polyester or cotton paper and typically have a MERV rating between 7 and 11, which means they’re significantly better at capturing small particles like pollen, mold spores, and pet dander. For most homes in Phoenix, this is the ideal level of filtration.

Pros:

• Great balance between cost and performance
• Filters out most allergens and dust
• Affordable (around $4)
• Better for HVAC longevity than fiberglass filters
• Replaced every 60–90 days

Cons:

• Slightly more airflow resistance than fiberglass, but well within safe limits for most systems
  
  

A quality pleated filter is also more rigid and won’t collapse under high airflow like cheap fiberglass filters sometimes do. And in Phoenix, where AC units run nearly nonstop during the summer, you want something reliable.

⚠️ High-Efficiency Filters (MERV 13+): Caution Advised

High-efficiency filters, such as HEPA or MERV 13–16 filters, can capture particles as small as bacteria and smoke. While this sounds great, they may restrict airflow too much for standard residential systems unless your HVAC was specifically designed or upgraded to accommodate them.

Pros:

• Exceptional filtration
• Great for households with severe allergies or respiratory conditions

Cons:

• Can reduce airflow, stressing the blower motor
• Higher energy bills
• May require system upgrades
• Cost more (often $15–$30+ each)
  
  

Unless you have a high-end HVAC system, a specific health concern, or advice from an HVAC professional, these filters may do more harm than good in your Phoenix home.

So Why the $4 Pleated Filter Wins in Phoenix

Phoenix homes face a unique set of environmental challenges:

• High dust from desert soil and haboobs
• Long AC seasons with near-constant air circulation
• Pollen and pollution during spring and monsoon seasons

A one-inch pleated filter offers a perfect balance of affordability, performance, and system protection for this climate. It’s efficient enough to clean the air without restricting airflow and causing HVAC strain.

Final Tip: Change It Regularly!

Even the best filter won’t work if it’s clogged. In Phoenix, check your filter every 21 to 30 days during peak AC months, and every 45 days in cooler seasons. If you have pets, allergies, or lots of dust, consider checking monthly.


Bottom Line:
The best HVAC filter for most Phoenix homes is a 1-inch pleated filter with a MERV rating of 8–11, costing around $4. It strikes the right balance between clean air, energy efficiency, and affordability—without overworking your system in the desert heat.

If you or anyone you know has a real estate need, call or text me with their name and number. I promise to take good care of them. DONALD KEYS Selling Homes Since 2006 HomeSmart (602) 750-1744 

Fabulous Phoenix 4th: (July 4th)
This event, taking place at Steele Indian School Park, is known as the largest fireworks show in the Southwest. It includes live entertainment, a kid's zone, a veteran's village, food trucks, and more.

Tempe 4th of July Celebration: (July 4th)
Tempe Diablo Stadium hosts a fireworks display plus other activities for all ages.

Westgate Firework Fest (Glendale, AZ) : (July 4th)
Located Near The Cardinals Stadium in Glendale, AZ The Westgate Entertainment District includes live music, food, a splash zone, and of course, fireworks!

Arizona Celebration Of Freedom (Mesa, AZ): (July 4th)
Downtown Mesa hosts this festival that includes food, cooling areas, fun for kids and fireworks. 

All American Festival (Peoria, AZ): (July 4th)
Peoria Sports Complex host this annual fun event that includes a fantastic fireworks show, cool zones for kids, entertainment and of course great food!

If you or anyone you know has a REAL ESTATE NEED (Buying / Selling Questions) call or Text me today! DONALD KEYS Selling Homes Since 2006.HomeSmart (602) 750-1744 

Trying to find the right type of home can be a challenge. By taking this simple quiz you can find out what type of home best fits your needs.

1. When you picture your ideal weekend at home, what do you see?

A. Hosting a game night with friends or a family BBQ in the backyard
B. Restoring a unique home with character and charm
C. Streaming a movie in your smart home theater after cooking in a sleek kitchen
D. Joining neighbors for a wine tasting or fitness class at the clubhouse



2. What’s most important to you in a home?

A. Space for guests, kids, or hobbies — maybe a bonus room or home office
B. Authentic details like original woodwork, crown molding, or a clawfoot tub
C. Clean lines, open layouts, and energy-efficient technology
D. Low-maintenance living in a fun, social, age-targeted community


3. Which of these features excites you the most?

A. A community pool, big kitchen island, and a kid-friendly neighborhood
B. An antique fireplace, pocket doors, or historic designation
C. Voice-activated lights, modern finishes, and a minimalist design
D. A golf course nearby, art studio, and movie nights with neighbors


4. How do you define “home”?

A. A place filled with people I love and room for everyone
B. A storybook with walls — full of character and potential
C. A functional and stylish sanctuary with all the latest conveniences
D. A vibrant lifestyle hub where I can relax and stay active with peers

Home prices in Maricopa County have started to drop. Last year in April the Median List Price was $534,999 and just one year later the Median List Price dropped over 2.8% to $519,900. The price decrease most likely has been caused by a number of factors including the number of homes for sale causing increase competition, especially from new homes  and pressure from rising mortgage rates. 

Buyers are back in control in many cities in Maricopa County including Goodyear, Surprise, Peoria, Sun City and Mesa Arizona. This means that Buyers have more homes to choose from and are requesting closing cost assistance in addition to lower priced offers. Even the luxury market is starting to show signs f weakness in Scottsdale, Chandler and Fountain HIlls. 

What this means for Sellers is that your home needs to be "move in ready" and "show like a new home model". All known repairs need to be completed before putting your home on the market and it needs to look like a shiny new penny that also smells good. The days on market is hovering around 75 days so if you plan on moving by the end of the Summer of 2025, you need to get your home on the market as soon as possible. 

Thinking of Buying or Selling a home wan want to learn more? I am always here to offer clear and concise information you can trust every step of the way. Just reach out to me via phone, text or the CONTACT page on this website. DONALD KEYS Selling Homes Since 2006 HomeSmart (602) 750-1744. 

Recently I attended a Phoenix Real Estate Market update for April 2025 hosted by The Cromford Report. A wide variety of topics were discussed including the current state of the market, appreciation, demand and interest rates. 

We also went over the three types of real estate markets; Seller's Market, Balanced Market and Buyer's Market. And believe it or not we are in all three of these types of markets... depending on where you live.

A Seller's Market is where there is more demand vs supply. Phoenix, Scottsdale and Tempe are just three of the 10 areas currently in a Seller's Market.

A Balanced Market is where there is equal demand between Buyers and Sellers. Glendale, Mesa and Peoria are just three of the six markets that are currently in balance.

Finally a Buyer's Market is where there is more supply vs demand and Buyer's are in control. The Phoenix Metro ... aka "The Valley" has 13 Buyers Market Cities including Goodyear, Suprise and the age restricted committees of Sun City and Sun City West.

The Cromford Market Index reports month over month changes by city. So if you are looking to Sell your home and you are in the seven cities currently in a Seller's Market (Chandler, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Gilbert, Tempe, Fountain Hills and Phoenix), then GOOD NEWS, you are in control as demand is higher vs supply.

If you are looking to Buy a home and want to closing costs or fees paid by the Seller (Buyer Broker Compensation Fee, Lender Fees, Title Fees etc...)  then consider purchasing in Goodyear, Queen Creek, Surprise, Buckeye or Maricopa as these cities are currently in a Buyer's Market.

Keep in mind that the market changes weekly and there is no guarantee that Seller's will take a lower offer or pay the closing costs you are ultimately responsible for as a Buyer.

I hear all the time "home prices are to high", and "interest rates are to high". That maybe true, but it all depends on your perspective and timeline. According to the Monthly Median Sales Price chart above,  prices are exactly where they should be. Home prices in the Phoenix area, on average appreciate between 3% and 5% per year (depending on the area and quality of home). Just like the stock market home prices have fluctuated over the years, but ultimately go up as the price of materials to build homes goes up.

Just like the saying when planting trees... the same is true for real estate... The best time to buy a home is NOW, the second best time was 10 years ago! Stop renting and become your own landlord, build equity over the next 5, 10 or 15 years, before home prices double!

If you are looking to make a move (buying or selling) call or text me today: DONALD KEYS Selling Homes Since 2006 HomeSmart (602) 750-1744 I will be happy to take care of you :)